Monday, November 23, 2009
Wx museum update
No one here is a proponent of anthropogenic based climate warming. Co2 levels are just too small to cause such drastic ramifications. One must watch the water vapor levels through. Lots of that and it's a huge greenhouse gas. No one talks about it though. Why?
While the AGW controversy deals a pretty big blow to the human caused global warming, the green message is still valid. We must protect the planet, we must do a better job of preventing damage to the ecosystem, we must recycle, and so on and so on. If anything good came out of this, it's the enhanced awareness of what impact we do have. Keep that end of it up and we could be ok decades down the road.
This is not to say that Global Warming is false. It happens. So does global cooling. Watch for it.
What happened to the hurricanes this year? Why was it so quiet? http://www.claimsmag.com/News/2009/7/Pages/WSI-Predicts-Unusually-Quiet-2009-Hurricane-Season-.aspx. Gives good reasons. Nice late prediction though. If the el nino drags on through next year, we have a pretty good shot at another quiet season.
Nice Houston forecast for the holiday week. Cold front tomorrow (with a good shot at thunderstorms). Afterwards, high pressure pushes in, bringing crisp clear weather through the rest of the week. Make sure to have a coat available when out shopping early Friday.
Weather Museum food drive going well. Need more canned good though. This is going out benefit those who were affected by Hurricane Ike. Remember one can = one free general admission. We've all got those laying around, right? The ones in the back that you forgot about or bought too much of. Clear them out, bring them over and get a free trip through the museum.
That's all for now. Have a great Thanksgiving!
Friday, September 18, 2009
Museum District Day!
Museums with the largest turn out continue to be The Museum of Fine Arts and The Museum of Natural Science with the Children's Museum right behind them. Numbers for The Weather Museum were right on par with last year, which works our great as we're definitely filled to capacity on numerous occasions. We even heard a few stories on how a visitor's daughter had to be pulled out of the museum because she enjoyed it so much and a few people stayed for hours viewing our exhibits and Ike video. We also had a couple Ike influenced pieces of art generously donated by artists at the Caroline Collective located just down the street from us.
This was my first Museum District Day and I had an absolute blast helping out all the visitors. Here's hoping next year is even bigger and better!!
Onto the tropics...
This time yesterday, there looked like nothing was going on in the Atlantic. This morning is a completely different story. We're watching both the remnant low of hurricane Fred and a broad area of low pressure about 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Thunderstorm activity near that low looked much more impressive a few hours ago, but has since died down somewhat as stronger shear has begun to impact the system. The remnants of Fred have been producing intermittent showers and thunderstorms as it slowly moves west from where it first diminished. Models have started picking up again on this system and could begin to influence weather in the Gulf within the next 5 or so days...if it makes it. Presently, thunderstorm activity remain limited, though a fresh crop of showers have sprung up near the southern end of the circulation. This remains something we should all keep an eye on in the coming days.
As for Houston, who doesn't like this cut off upper level low over northern Louisiana? Since the rain cleared out this past weekend, we've been in a steady west to northwest flow, keeping us a little less humid and a whole lot less hot. I'm sure anyone in Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi would say otherwise as rain has been falling in buckets for the past few days in that region.
We'll probably;y have a slight uptick in heat and humidity over the weekend and into early next week as the low moves out and southerly flow return to SE Texas. Buuuuuut, this may not last for long as models have been keying in on a cold front (!!!!) to move through the area Wednesday, with actual north winds behind it.
Thats all I have for today. Hope you all have a good weekend!!
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Tropical Storm Fred/MDD/Gulf of Mexico
We've also got another watch area over on the east coast, near the outer banks. It's basically just a weak area of low pressure that continues to produce a good deal of wind and rain. Still, it's something to keep an eye on, though not much development is expected, if any, as that shear remains just a bit too strong for any real organization.
What about the Gulf? All we've had so far is Claudette and unless you lived east of New Orleans, you didn't get a drop of rain from it. Models have been pretty shaky of late, but a few are hinting at the development of an area of low pressure in the western Gulf, anywhere from coastal Louisiana to southern Texas. Could we get another short lived storm in the Gulf? Will the low even form? Are we even going to get any substantial rainfall? We could go either way on all of those. In any case, it'll be a good idea to watch the area.
Museum District Day 2009 is fast approaching (Saturday!!) and we are in need of some volunteers. We can easily expect about 2000 people to move through the museum (ours alone) and we just don't have the staff to watch everyone. We're fortunate enough to have a few extras coming, but we need more, probably about 5 to 10 more people. If you've got nothing to do Saturday, come on down to the weather museum and help us out. Food and drinks will be available. Contact Benjamin Maloney at 713-529-3076 or wrc@wxresearch.org for more info. Hope to see you here!
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Tropical Depression Two!!
That said, getting an accurate track on this thing will be hard until it develops further. At this time the NHC is calling for a general westward motion (keeping it in light shear and allowing some development) until a weakness develops in the Atlantic high. When this occurs, TD 2 is expected to make it's northward shift in direction and enter the stronger upper level winds.
This depression shouldn't pose any threat to the Gulf of Mexico or even the east coast of the US.
We could have another tropical system forming within the next day or so. GFS has been keying on a wave to emerge from Africa within the next 12 to 24 hours. Once it does, the model has been developing an area of low pressure along the wave and then rapidly intensifying as it stays further south in the lighter shear. The forecast track for it actually puts it near the Gulf (sometime next week) before making a sudden turn to the north and northeast. This is just speculation at this point because this wave hasn't emerged yet, though GFS has been pretty consistent with it's initiation at least. So, don't worry about it until it actually forms. At that time, I'm guessing that models solutions will change dramatically.
There are also a couple other watch areas in the central Atlantic and near the eastern Caribbean, though no development is expected of either as they remain in an area of strong shear.
Tropical season has finally arrived!
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Updates! Whats going on in the tropics!
The second seminar is looking to be much bigger than any seminar we have done so far. With previous seminars we have focused primarily on southeast Texas, even with the climate change topic. Now, we're looking to go national and we'll be covering flooding, a severely under appreciated aspect of the weather (also something anyone in Louisville may want to pay attention to.) As of now, this is looking like a two day conference with a registration fee. Details are presently sketchy, but the committee is meeting as I type, so we'll have more information very soon. Should be open to the general public, as flooding eventually affects all of us in some way.
Did you know that flooding causes more weather related deaths than any other event? Tornadoes and lightening may look more spectacular, but they don't hold a candle to what flooding can do. And did you know that most every year Texas leads the nation in flooding deaths? Stop driving through standing water people! For more information of flooding check out http://www.floodsafety.com/texas/regional_info/regional_info/houston_zone.htm.
As for the tropics, there isn't much going on. Yesterday we did have a watch area in the eastern/central Atlantic, today it's gone as shower activity has greatly diminished in that area. There is a weak low floating around the eastern Atlantic, near 12N 33W. At this time, no development is expected, though it will be a good idea to keep an eye on it as it meanders west-northwest. Lets hope the season stays quiet, though we have the most active part coming up. August 15th to September 15th is traditionally when most development occurs. Keep them fingers crossed. On a more comforting note, Professor Gray revised his scale and brought the foretasted tropical activity down a small notch. Which actually brings it closer to our prediction. Nice job us!
Moving onto Houston. Not much to say as high pressure persists over the eastern and central Gulf keeping a hot and humid air mass over us for the foreseeable duration. We are under a heat advisory today and probably tomorrow also as we can easily foresee a few 100+ degree temps popping up in Harris County and the surrounding area. Stay inside as much as possible and drink lots of water.
Thanks all!
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
New seminar!
In other news, it actually rained over a majority of Houston this morning. I haven't heard/felt that in a while. And while we're all very thankful for the rain, we could still use a good deal more. At the moment, we're about 4 to 6 inches under normal. If we were further west, it'd be even worse. Lake Travis is about 28 feet below normal. This is absolutely horrible. We need rain here in Texas, just not near Dallas. They've had enough.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Brief look at the tropics
We did have a bit of a scare over the weekend as the nhc issued a moderate risk of development for a tropical wave that was moving over the northwest Caribbean. Short range models even showed a low developing over the southeast Gulf then moving into Florida as anything from a depression to a cat 2 hurricane. Moving into the Yucatan Peninsula and dry air had something to say about that though. So, nothing came of it except widespread showers over the western Caribbean.
Tomorrow, Weather Pioneer Days and a look at India. Could have more pictures!!
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Weather Pioneer Day
This Friday and Saturday we'll be celebrating Weather Pioneer Days at the museum. Friday will be the media focused event with a few of the local TV meteorologists coming to help us open our new exhibit that deals with the weather history for Texas. Saturday will be free day at the Museum with many activities based around the weather pioneers of Texas. Popcorn will be available to all comers and we'll even have a petting zoo. Completely unrelated, I know, but it should be a hit with the kids. Access to the event and museum is free on Saturday. The media event will be free from 10am to 12pm.
The beginnings of modern meteorology had it'd roots in two places, university of Chicago and here in Texas. So come on over and see how it all began.
Just a quick teaser for the next blog..." Area of low pressure to enter the southeast Gulf later this week."
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
What a week!!!
Three events last week, THREE!! I don't think we've ever been so busy in the past three years. Tuesday was the climate change seminar, Wednesday was our Earth Day/ Third Birthday and to wrap it all up was the 14th annual Weather Museum Classic on Friday.
Though we lost two speakers within 24 hours of each other due to illness, the seminar turned out great. All the speakers were really good and the turn out was far better than we had hoped for. Tom Wysmuller was.....amazing. His 50 minute talk went for what felt like 15 minutes. I'd love to be able to see his three hour presentation one day. One of the theories (not his own) he presented was that with the north pole Ice cap melting, we'll soon have a large build up of snow throughout Canada and the northern US (is this happening already?). This increased snowfall will then lead to a larger albedo for the planet (the larger the albedo the more sunlight that gets reflected back to space) which then cools us off. Interesting indeed.
Also of note is the talk given by John Anderson of Rice University. The Texas coasts are disappearingg. We're not at the levels that Louisiana is at (a dire situation), but that doesn't mean we can't start doing something smart about it now.
The next day was our Earth Day celebration! I'd like to issue a very special thanks to the volunteers from El Paso Corporation and US Bank. Without you, there would have been no way we could have handled it all.
The day was a complete success with our largest attendance ever! We'd made a few changes with our activities, with both the recycling relay and rain gauge re-fill changed around to be more competitive. With that, we successfully ended up with a nice mud pit by the rain gauges three hours in.
Highly recommended: moon walks. They can distract kids for hours. Too bad we couldn't have everyone on at once. It was quite the task trying to limit it to 5 people at a time. 200 kids with 5 on at a time equals almost too difficult task for one supervisor. Again, thank you volunteers.
Wrapping up the week was the golf tournament at the Wildcat Golf Club. If the wind had died down a bit, the weather for the day would have been perfect. Lots of golfers, lots of good times, and great food contributed to one of our more successful fund raisers. The best part was that the rain waited until we were completely done with the awards ceremony. It was pretty neat driving around on the drink cart while watching the storm build up as it made it's way towards the city. Driving home in it....not so neat. Among the numerous attendees were: Judge Ed Emmett, Dr. Neil Frank, Cecilia Poole, Marshall Seese, and Keith Westerlage.
Here's hoping we get even more participants next year!
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Wheres the exhibit?
Our City on the Bayou: Houston's History of Flooding traveling exhibit is back on the road. If you're near the Barbara Bush Library on the north side of the city, head up to the second floor and get a quick lesson on flooding in Houston.
Here's site if you need a map.
http://www.hcpl.net/branchinfo/cc/ccinfo.htm
Very nice, very large library. The people who work there are very nice also. So pay a visit, check us out while checking a book out.
Another front will be passing though tomorrow. Not much rain associated with this one, the previous front pretty much scoured out the moisture from the atmosphere. Expect some slightly cooler temps and dryer air. Wind ahead of and behind the front should be pretty strong though, so put a hat on. Another frontal passage is expected on late Saturday into early Sunday. Looks like rain chances are better with this one.
Until next time...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Earth Day update!
If you haven't already seen the flier at http://www.wxresearch.org/events the activities we have planned for the day are a bag toss, recycle relay, rain gauge refill, flower planting, pirate ship moon walk, coloring pages, puzzles, and a variety of earth day crafts.
Newly added is an Earth Day egg hunt! Right now, we only have one time planned for the hunt, 10:00am. Depending on the amount of people attending the event, we may add another one at a time that has yet to be decided.
We're also planning on having a few news crews from the local stations here at the start, so if you get there early you could end up on the television. Who doesn't want that?!?!
Concerned about climate change? Come to the seminar! It's going to be great! http://www.wxresearch.org/events. The registration form (free!!!) and list of speakers is up also. Come and get a different look at the climate change "problem."
Last but not least is our 14th annual Weather Museum Golf Tournament. It's one of, if not, the biggest fundraiser for the year. Details are located at http://www.wxresearch.org/events. Do you like weather? Do you like Golf? Do you like both? If you said yes to any of these, then you have to come out to the Wildcat Golf Club on April 24th. Come with a team and you'll get a chance to beat Neil Frank (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Frank) the usual winner of the event. Plus you'll be able to meet a few meteorologists from The Weather Channel!
Friday, March 27, 2009
News of the week
Frontal passage this evening will definitely clear out the skies and get rid of some of this icky humidity. Expect some strong winds behind the front; gotta get that cool air down here somehow. Tomorrow will easily be the best day of the week. So go out and enjoy it!
Here it is! Our "final" schedule for the climate change seminar. Remember, this is free, so there's no cost excuse to not come down. You may have to fend for yourself during dinner though. We've got a great line up of speakers for you. Hope to see a full house!
Schedule of Topics:
Opening Remarks:
Session 1:
Break:
Session 2:
Session 3: Student Posters
Dinner Break –
Session 3:
7:00 – 7:40 – Tom Wysmuller – Speaker – “Global Warming (dis)believers – Are they two sides of the same coin?”
Also, take a look at http://wxresearch.org/earthday/ . It's was just posted up on the web today. Lots of good information there about conservation and recycling. It also contains a link to the flyer of our Earth Day/Museum Birthday event we're holding. It's another free day for the museum, so come on over! Food and drinks will be served!
Last topic of the blog brings us to a talk that Jill presented at the local Kiwanis Club dealing with hurricane Ike. Ike is still a special case for hurrican es. It was just a category 2 but that strom surge would easily accompany a catergory 4 storm. What happened? It was emmense, Thats what happened. Since 1900, only Hurricane Carla in 1961 was larger. With a windfield as large as Ike's, it's bucome a whole lot more clear as to why the surge was so devistating for anyone along the coast in it's path. Jill also brought up the 2009 hurricane outlook that was the subject of the last blog and our new hurricane strength scale (The Freeman HPD).
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
More news about events
We'll also be putting up a list of the speakers for the seminar in the up coming days. It's shaping up to be a pretty impressive event, plus it's free, so there's almost no excuse for not coming.
Earth day is also looking pretty good. We're expecting more people than ever at the museum for that day. We're also trying to get a few environmental groups from some of the local universities to come out with information concerning recycling and/or conservation methods.
We're still looking for volunteers for every day except Sunday (when we're closed). You could come in at anytime between 9am and 4pm and stay however long you like or until you're finished with the project at hand. There is a large variety of projects that need to be completed and we could definitely use most anyone's help. Some light register duty may be included. Call Benjamin Maloney at 713-529-3076 if you're interested.
Could we get some more rain tonight? We're still down about 4-6 inches across the area so anything would be much appreciated. Storms may become severe tonight across the area, especially north of I-10, as the cold front nears southeast Texas. Still the entire area may want to keep a lookout for hail, lightning, and the possible isolated tornado. We'll be keeping an eye on the mess over the week. Follow us on twitter and facebook for more updates!
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Weather Research Center 2009 Hurricane Outlook
The Coast from
COAST WRC OCSI CLIMATOLOGY
Mexico 40% 40%
Texas 40% 51%
Louisiana to Alabama 70% 59%
West Florida 60% 71%
East Florida 30% 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 50% 56%
East Coast of US 30% 36%
Gulf Oil Blocks 90% 88%
Other 2009 Predictors from WRC’s OCSI:
OCSI Forecasts
Number of Named Storms: 7
Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 4
Number of Hurricane Days: 7
Number of Tropical Storm Days: 47
US Landfalls: 3
Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50%
The risk of tropical cyclones occurring in the Atlantic by month is:
May 10% - June 50% - July 30% - August 80% - September 100% -
October 100% - November 40%
The 2009 forecast is based on the activity in the following years: 1879, 1890, 1902, 1914, 1924, 1934, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1977, 1987 and 1997.
Significant storms in this Phase of the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI]:
1924 2 strong hurricanes – Cat 4 on East Coast and Cat 3 along West Florida
1945 3 strong hurricanes on the US Coast – Cat 3 East Florida, Cat 4 Texas,
and Cat 4 in Miami
1955 3 hurricanes moved up the east coast – Connie, Diane and Ione
1965 Hurricane Betsy moved into Louisiana
During the 25-year period from 1984 to 2008, there have only been three years (1987, 1992, and 1999) when a storm or hurricane did not make landfall in the section of the
Friday, March 13, 2009
Climate seminar speakers finalized
John Nielson-Gammon - Texas A&M
John Anderson - Rice University
Barry Lefer - University of Houston
Dr. Peter Bishop - University of Houston
Jill Hasling - Weather Research Center
Bruce McCarl - Texas A&M
Tom Wysmuller - Climate Change lecturer - After dinner speaker
Robert Harriss - HARC
John Hofmeister - CEO of citizens for affordable energy
Karl Pepple - City of Houston Environmental Programming Director
Who is speaking when hasn't been fully decided yet other than Dr. Bishop going on around 4pm and Tom Wysmuller. That should be decided soon and will be posted here and on the WRC website. Look for flyers at just about every public place also. This event is free and open to the public.
Earth Day planning is underway. Thanks to Vaisala, we now have a sponsor. This should be our best Earth Day/ Birthday ever. This event is also free and open to the public. We're already expecting big crowds.
Look for us on facebook and twitter:
http://tinyurl.com/adgmmv
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Its been a bit...here's the reason.
The first event on the calendar is the Climate Change seminar on April 21st. While the first seminar was great there we're a few things that could have been done better. Lessons learned from that talk are being applied to this one and it's shaping up to be an amazing talk for all in attendance.
Details for now are: April 21st, 2009 at The University of St. Thomas. Right now, we are unsure as to where on the campus we will be having the talk, but rest assured, it will be inside. Start time is at 1pm with and end of the main talks being planned for around 5:30 pm. After which there will be an hour break for dinner. Part two starts at 7:00pm and goes to 8:00pm. The second part will have two speakers taking sides on a warming issue (probably not the cause). After they talk for their twenty or so minutes the floor will be opened up to questions from the audience. I love this part. Anytime there can be discussion involved, it's a win-win situation. A flyer for the event will be posted on our website, www.wxresearch.com, with contact information.
Just the very next day is Earth Day/ Weather Museum Birthday and we're planning out another day of educational fun. Many of the favorite activities from last year will be carried over to this
year with a few neat additions. At this time, we're planning on planting a vegetable garden in the back yard. This will probably start at a specifc time and we'll only be able to take a limited amount of people to help. Anyone who does get to help will get their own marker placed by their plant, so that when they come back, they'll be able to check up on their plant. All those who would like, can also take home a cup with flower seedlings. Popcorn will also be available. Who likes sunflowers the best!
The third and final event of the week is our 14th annual Weather Museum Classic. Meteorologiss from around the country fly in an play golf at the Wildcat Golf Club every year in support of The Weather Museum. It's one of our biggest fundraisers of the year. Look for us on the 24th on the greens!
Volunteers are needed for all events, so give us a call or email us if interested.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Groundhog Day and more
Finding a groundhog to look for his shadow is hard in these parts, so we enlisted the Houston Aquarium to help us out. They provided both an Owl (BK) and a sloth (Pacha) to look for their shadows at the Museum. They were quite the hit with kids and teachers that came from
Mac Gregor elementary, Montessori Day School, and the daycare next to us. Sadly, they both saw their shadows, meaning six more weeks of "winter" for us.
After the kids got to see the animals and ask questions of their trainers, they got a tour of the museum, played Weather Jeopardy Groundhog Day Edition, and made construction paper groundhogs (complete with rising action).
If the morning events went well, then the evening went even better.
At 7pm that night, the WRC held it's first ever Groundhog Gala at the Houston Zoo in the Brown Education Center. What a gala it was!
The night started off with an award presentation for our Weather Heroes and Hurricane Ike Heroes awards. Recipients included Mayor White, Judge Emmett, Mark Sloan (HCOEM), Lt. John Moran and crew of the U.S. Coast Guard (standing ovation), and Manuel Gonzalez among others.
The evening then concluded with a delicious four course dinner. It was a great time had by all and be sure to take a look at a few of the pictures on the side.