Earth Day update!

New event added to the list of activities for earth day.

If you haven't already seen the flier at http://www.wxresearch.org/events the activities we have planned for the day are a bag toss, recycle relay, rain gauge refill, flower planting, pirate ship moon walk, coloring pages, puzzles, and a variety of earth day crafts.

Newly added is an Earth Day egg hunt! Right now, we only have one time planned for the hunt, 10:00am. Depending on the amount of people attending the event, we may add another one at a time that has yet to be decided.

We're also planning on having a few news crews from the local stations here at the start, so if you get there early you could end up on the television. Who doesn't want that?!?!

Concerned about climate change? Come to the seminar! It's going to be great! http://www.wxresearch.org/events. The registration form (free!!!) and list of speakers is up also. Come and get a different look at the climate change "problem."

Last but not least is our 14th annual Weather Museum Golf Tournament. It's one of, if not, the biggest fundraiser for the year. Details are located at http://www.wxresearch.org/events. Do you like weather? Do you like Golf? Do you like both? If you said yes to any of these, then you have to come out to the Wildcat Golf Club on April 24th. Come with a team and you'll get a chance to beat Neil Frank (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Frank) the usual winner of the event. Plus you'll be able to meet a few meteorologists from The Weather Channel!

News of the week

We had some excellent storms rumble through the past few days, but it looks like the passage of a cold front tonight will signal the end of our stormy period...at least for a few days. Next time, I'll have to save a few images of the storms to post on the blog, hopefully we'll get some more before spring is all done.

Frontal passage this evening will definitely clear out the skies and get rid of some of this icky humidity. Expect some strong winds behind the front; gotta get that cool air down here somehow. Tomorrow will easily be the best day of the week. So go out and enjoy it!

Here it is! Our "final" schedule for the climate change seminar. Remember, this is free, so there's no cost excuse to not come down. You may have to fend for yourself during dinner though. We've got a great line up of speakers for you. Hope to see a full house!

Schedule of Topics:

Opening Remarks: 1:00 – 1:10 – Sister Damien Marie Savino

Session 1:

1:10 - 1:35 – John Hofmeister: CEO of Citizens for Affordable Energy

1:35 - 2:00 – Barry Lefer: University of Houston – “The Science behind Global Warming”

2:00 - 2:25 – John Nielson-Gammon: Texas A&M – “The changing climate of Texas”

2:25 - 2:50 – Bruce McCarl – Texas A&M – “Impacts to Agriculture”

Break: 2:50 - 3:00

Session 2:

3:05 - 3:30 – Jill Hasling: Weather Research Center

3:30 - 3:55 – Robert Harriss: HARC – “Adaptation Issues”

3:55 - 4:20 – Dr. Peter Bishop: Univ of Houston –“Sociological impacts of Global Warming”

4:20 - 4:45 – John Anderson: Rice University – “Impact of Global Change on the Texas Coast”

4:45 – 5:10 – Karl Pepple: City of Houston Environmental Programming Director

Session 3: Student Posters

5:10 – 6:00

Dinner Break – 6:00 – 7:00

Session 3:

7:00 – 7:40 – Tom Wysmuller – Speaker – “Global Warming (dis)believers – Are they two sides of the same coin?”

7:40 – 8:00 – Q&A

Also, take a look at http://wxresearch.org/earthday/ . It's was just posted up on the web today. Lots of good information there about conservation and recycling. It also contains a link to the flyer of our Earth Day/Museum Birthday event we're holding. It's another free day for the museum, so come on over! Food and drinks will be served!

Last topic of the blog brings us to a talk that Jill presented at the local Kiwanis Club dealing with hurricane Ike. Ike is still a special case for hurrican es. It was just a category 2 but that strom surge would easily accompany a catergory 4 storm. What happened? It was emmense, Thats what happened. Since 1900, only Hurricane Carla in 1961 was larger. With a windfield as large as Ike's, it's bucome a whole lot more clear as to why the surge was so devistating for anyone along the coast in it's path. Jill also brought up the 2009 hurricane outlook that was the subject of the last blog and our new hurricane strength scale (The Freeman HPD).

More news about events

The flyers are up on the web for both Earth Day and the Climate Change seminar. They can be found at http://wxresearch.org/events/ .

We'll also be putting up a list of the speakers for the seminar in the up coming days. It's shaping up to be a pretty impressive event, plus it's free, so there's almost no excuse for not coming.

Earth day is also looking pretty good. We're expecting more people than ever at the museum for that day. We're also trying to get a few environmental groups from some of the local universities to come out with information concerning recycling and/or conservation methods.

We're still looking for volunteers for every day except Sunday (when we're closed). You could come in at anytime between 9am and 4pm and stay however long you like or until you're finished with the project at hand. There is a large variety of projects that need to be completed and we could definitely use most anyone's help. Some light register duty may be included. Call Benjamin Maloney at 713-529-3076 if you're interested.

Could we get some more rain tonight? We're still down about 4-6 inches across the area so anything would be much appreciated. Storms may become severe tonight across the area, especially north of I-10, as the cold front nears southeast Texas. Still the entire area may want to keep a lookout for hail, lightning, and the possible isolated tornado. We'll be keeping an eye on the mess over the week. Follow us on twitter and facebook for more updates!

Weather Research Center 2009 Hurricane Outlook

It's that time of the year again! What time you say? It's 2009 Hurricane Outlook time! Over the next couple of weeks, everyone is going to be coming out with their own analysis of whats going to be happening during this years hurricane season. Ours is based on the sun spot cycles and is far more accurate than most people think. Here's the press release and announcement of the new Freeman damage potential scale. Let us know what you think!

The Coast from Louisiana to Alabama Will Have the Highest Risk of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Landfall This Year with a 70% Chance

Weather Research Center’s New Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale Will Become Operational for the 2009 Hurricane Season

Houston – The outlook for the 2009 Hurricane Season is not a good one for the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf coast from Louisiana to Alabama which has a 70% chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane landfall. According to Houston based Weather Research Center’s meteorologist, Jill Hasling, the Center’s outlook is forecasting that the 2009 Hurricane Season will have at least 7 named storms with 4 of these tropical storms intensifying into hurricanes.

Last year, Hurricane Ike demonstrated that size matters when it comes to hurricanes. Ike was a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale but caused catastrophic damage to offshore operations as well as structures along the upper Texas Coast. Meteorologists at Weather Research Center researched past Gulf of Mexico hurricanes and developed a new hurricane damage potential scale that takes into account the size of the hurricane. This scale will be used operationally during the 2009 season to give offshore operators a better estimate of the type of hurricane that would be threatening the Gulf. The scale is the Freeman Hurricane Damage Potential Scale or the Freeman HDP. Hurricanes Ike, Rita, Katrina and Ivan would have all been 5s on the Freeman HDP.

Additionally, the outlook is forecasting that there will be 7 hurricane days and 47 tropical storm days. There have been two years in this phase, 1890 and 1914, with only one tropical cyclone. So hopefully, we will have a quieter season than in recent years. But one must remember it is not the number of cyclones that is important but rather where they make landfall. For example, there were only six named storms in 1965, but Hurricane Betsy made landfall in New Orleans as a Category 3 hurricane.

There have been two years in this phase with 11 named storms and one year with as many as 12 named storms.

2009 WRC OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC

COAST WRC OCSI CLIMATOLOGY

Mexico 40% 40%

Texas 40% 51%

Louisiana to Alabama 70% 59%

West Florida 60% 71%

East Florida 30% 41%

Georgia to N. Carolina 50% 56%

East Coast of US 30% 36%

Gulf Oil Blocks 90% 88%

Other 2009 Predictors from WRC’s OCSI:

OCSI Forecasts

Number of Named Storms: 7

Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 4

Number of Hurricane Days: 7

Number of Tropical Storm Days: 47

US Landfalls: 3

Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50%

The risk of tropical cyclones occurring in the Atlantic by month is:

May 10% - June 50% - July 30% - August 80% - September 100% -

October 100% - November 40%

The 2009 forecast is based on the activity in the following years: 1879, 1890, 1902, 1914, 1924, 1934, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1977, 1987 and 1997.

Significant storms in this Phase of the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI]:

1924 2 strong hurricanes – Cat 4 on East Coast and Cat 3 along West Florida

1945 3 strong hurricanes on the US Coast – Cat 3 East Florida, Cat 4 Texas,

and Cat 4 in Miami

1955 3 hurricanes moved up the east coast – Connie, Diane and Ione

1965 Hurricane Betsy moved into Louisiana

Weather Research Center’s (WRC) Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] was developed in 1984 to indicate which section of the US coastline has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.

The Houston-based Weather Research Center is one of a handful of organizations that make seasonal hurricane predictions. WRC uses a model called Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI) which uses the solar cycle [an indication of the solar system’s orbit] to predict the risk for coastal residents each hurricane season. The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun as well as the global circulation pattern of the earth. These orbital influences are reflected in the 11.1 year sun spot cycle.

During the 25-year period from 1984 to 2008, there have only been three years (1987, 1992, and 1999) when a storm or hurricane did not make landfall in the section of the United States coastline that had the highest risk. In all three of these years, cyclones made landfall in the section of the coast with the second highest risk. This gives the OCSI an 88% accuracy rate.

In addition to its ongoing research, WRC also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator®. This service helps provide detailed storm updates and related information. WRC’s current and past predictions can be found at www.wxresearch.com/outlook.

Founded in 1987, the non-profit Weather Research Center manages a worldwide forecasting operation and provides groundbreaking research to scientists around the world. Meteorologists provide tropical cyclone advisories worldwide, severe weather advisories, marine forecasts, long-range outlooks, environmental studies and forensic meteorology services. Weather Research Center provides research into tropical cyclones as well as real-time weather forecasts. WRC can also provide you with an assessment of your severe weather and tropical weather plans.

President Jill F. Hasling is a Fellow and Certified Consulting Meteorologist from the American Meteorological Society as well as a member of the National Council of Industrial Meteorologists.

For more information about The John C. Freeman Weather Museum at Weather Research Center, please call (713) 529-3076 or logon to www.wxresearch.org.

Climate seminar speakers finalized

It's all done! We've got all the speakers we need for the climate change seminar! We started off with some disappointment, many of the speakers we had originally targeted wanted a fee plus expenses. Not something we can easily afford, not as a small non-profit and not in this economy. So, we started to look closer to home...the response was amazing. We have professors and meteorologists from local universities and the city speaking at the seminar. Heres the line up:

John Nielson-Gammon - Texas A&M
John Anderson - Rice University
Barry Lefer - University of Houston
Dr. Peter Bishop - University of Houston
Jill Hasling - Weather Research Center
Bruce McCarl - Texas A&M
Tom Wysmuller - Climate Change lecturer - After dinner speaker
Robert Harriss - HARC
John Hofmeister - CEO of citizens for affordable energy
Karl Pepple - City of Houston Environmental Programming Director

Who is speaking when hasn't been fully decided yet other than Dr. Bishop going on around 4pm and Tom Wysmuller. That should be decided soon and will be posted here and on the WRC website. Look for flyers at just about every public place also. This event is free and open to the public.

Earth Day planning is underway. Thanks to Vaisala, we now have a sponsor. This should be our best Earth Day/ Birthday ever. This event is also free and open to the public. We're already expecting big crowds.

Look for us on facebook and twitter:
http://tinyurl.com/adgmmv

Its been a bit...here's the reason.

Much planning has been going on the past few weeks. With the Hurricane Ike seminar and groundhog day events behind us, it's time to get going on what will probably be our busiest week in a long while, the week of April 20th.

The first event on the calendar is the Climate Change seminar on April 21st. While the first seminar was great there we're a few things that could have been done better. Lessons learned from that talk are being applied to this one and it's shaping up to be an amazing talk for all in attendance.

Details for now are: April 21st, 2009 at The University of St. Thomas. Right now, we are unsure as to where on the campus we will be having the talk, but rest assured, it will be inside. Start time is at 1pm with and end of the main talks being planned for around 5:30 pm. After which there will be an hour break for dinner. Part two starts at 7:00pm and goes to 8:00pm. The second part will have two speakers taking sides on a warming issue (probably not the cause). After they talk for their twenty or so minutes the floor will be opened up to questions from the audience. I love this part. Anytime there can be discussion involved, it's a win-win situation. A flyer for the event will be posted on our website, www.wxresearch.com, with contact information.

Just the very next day is Earth Day/ Weather Museum Birthday and we're planning out another day of educational fun. Many of the favorite activities from last year will be carried over to this
year with a few neat additions. At this time, we're planning on planting a vegetable garden in the back yard. This will probably start at a specifc time and we'll only be able to take a limited amount of people to help. Anyone who does get to help will get their own marker placed by their plant, so that when they come back, they'll be able to check up on their plant. All those who would like, can also take home a cup with flower seedlings. Popcorn will also be available. Who likes sunflowers the best!

The third and final event of the week is our 14th annual Weather Museum Classic. Meteorologiss from around the country fly in an play golf at the Wildcat Golf Club every year in support of The Weather Museum. It's one of our biggest fundraisers of the year. Look for us on the 24th on the greens!

Volunteers are needed for all events, so give us a call or email us if interested.