First: Stay classy AGW (sarcasm).
No one here is a proponent of anthropogenic based climate warming. Co2 levels are just too small to cause such drastic ramifications. One must watch the water vapor levels through. Lots of that and it's a huge greenhouse gas. No one talks about it though. Why?
While the AGW controversy deals a pretty big blow to the human caused global warming, the green message is still valid. We must protect the planet, we must do a better job of preventing damage to the ecosystem, we must recycle, and so on and so on. If anything good came out of this, it's the enhanced awareness of what impact we do have. Keep that end of it up and we could be ok decades down the road.
This is not to say that Global Warming is false. It happens. So does global cooling. Watch for it.
What happened to the hurricanes this year? Why was it so quiet? http://www.claimsmag.com/News/2009/7/Pages/WSI-Predicts-Unusually-Quiet-2009-Hurricane-Season-.aspx. Gives good reasons. Nice late prediction though. If the el nino drags on through next year, we have a pretty good shot at another quiet season.
Nice Houston forecast for the holiday week. Cold front tomorrow (with a good shot at thunderstorms). Afterwards, high pressure pushes in, bringing crisp clear weather through the rest of the week. Make sure to have a coat available when out shopping early Friday.
Weather Museum food drive going well. Need more canned good though. This is going out benefit those who were affected by Hurricane Ike. Remember one can = one free general admission. We've all got those laying around, right? The ones in the back that you forgot about or bought too much of. Clear them out, bring them over and get a free trip through the museum.
That's all for now. Have a great Thanksgiving!
Monday, November 23, 2009
Friday, September 18, 2009
Museum District Day!
Another year, another Museum District Day has come and gone. You would think that with the persistent rain and clouds, there would have been a low turn out. Not so much. After a year hiatus due to Hurricane Ike, the event enjoyed its strongest turnout ever!! Total visitors for the day eclipsed 65,500, besting 2007's numbers by over 3000 people! Outstanding!
Museums with the largest turn out continue to be The Museum of Fine Arts and The Museum of Natural Science with
the Children's Museum right behind them. Numbers for The Weather Museum were right on par with last year, which works our great as we're definitely filled to capacity on numerous occasions. We even heard a few stories on how a visitor's daughter had to be pulled out of the museum because she enjoyed it so much and a few people stayed for hours viewing our exhibits and Ike video. We also had a couple Ike influenced pieces of art generously donated by artists at the Caroline Collective located just down the street from us.
This was my first Museum District Day and I had an absolute blast helping out all the visitors. Here's hoping next year is even bigger and better!!
Onto the tropics...
This time yesterday, there looked like nothing was going on in the Atlantic. This morning is a completely different story. We're watching both the remnant low of hurricane Fred and a broad area of low pressure about 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Thunderstorm activity near that low looked much more impressive a few hours ago, but has since died down somewhat as stronger shear has begun to impact the system. The remnants of Fred have been producing intermittent showers and thunderstorms as it slowly moves west from where it first diminished. Models have started picking up again on this system and could begin to influence weather in the Gulf within the next 5 or so days...if it makes it. Presently, thunderstorm activity remain limited, though a fresh crop of showers have sprung up near the southern end of the circulation. This remains something we should all keep an eye on in the coming days.
As for Houston, who doesn't like this cut off upper level low over northern Louisiana? Since the rain cleared out this past weekend, we've been in a steady west to northwest flow, keeping us a little less humid and a whole lot less hot. I'm sure anyone in Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi would say otherwise as rain has been falling in buckets for the past few days in that region.
We'll probably;y have a slight uptick in heat and humidity over the weekend and into early next week as the low moves out and southerly flow return to SE Texas. Buuuuuut, this may not last for long as models have been keying in on a cold front (!!!!) to move through the area Wednesday, with actual north winds behind it.
Thats all I have for today. Hope you all have a good weekend!!
Museums with the largest turn out continue to be The Museum of Fine Arts and The Museum of Natural Science with
the Children's Museum right behind them. Numbers for The Weather Museum were right on par with last year, which works our great as we're definitely filled to capacity on numerous occasions. We even heard a few stories on how a visitor's daughter had to be pulled out of the museum because she enjoyed it so much and a few people stayed for hours viewing our exhibits and Ike video. We also had a couple Ike influenced pieces of art generously donated by artists at the Caroline Collective located just down the street from us.This was my first Museum District Day and I had an absolute blast helping out all the visitors. Here's hoping next year is even bigger and better!!
Onto the tropics...
This time yesterday, there looked like nothing was going on in the Atlantic. This morning is a completely different story. We're watching both the remnant low of hurricane Fred and a broad area of low pressure about 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Thunderstorm activity near that low looked much more impressive a few hours ago, but has since died down somewhat as stronger shear has begun to impact the system. The remnants of Fred have been producing intermittent showers and thunderstorms as it slowly moves west from where it first diminished. Models have started picking up again on this system and could begin to influence weather in the Gulf within the next 5 or so days...if it makes it. Presently, thunderstorm activity remain limited, though a fresh crop of showers have sprung up near the southern end of the circulation. This remains something we should all keep an eye on in the coming days.
As for Houston, who doesn't like this cut off upper level low over northern Louisiana? Since the rain cleared out this past weekend, we've been in a steady west to northwest flow, keeping us a little less humid and a whole lot less hot. I'm sure anyone in Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi would say otherwise as rain has been falling in buckets for the past few days in that region.
We'll probably;y have a slight uptick in heat and humidity over the weekend and into early next week as the low moves out and southerly flow return to SE Texas. Buuuuuut, this may not last for long as models have been keying in on a cold front (!!!!) to move through the area Wednesday, with actual north winds behind it.
Thats all I have for today. Hope you all have a good weekend!!
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Tropical Storm Fred/MDD/Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Depression 7 rapidly strengthened into Fred late last night and conditions remain favorable over the next 36 hours for it to become only our second hurricane of the year. After wards, though, it's not looking to good for our little system. A upper level trough (now north of Fred) will start to bring some strong shear to the storm. This, combined with a northerly track that puts it in some much cooler waters, will begin to weaken Fred, bringing back to Tropical Storm status by Friday. For the most part, models keep the system on a north to northwest track over the next few days, but by the end of the week, high pressure could develop north of the storm and either halt movement or dramatically slow it down, while steering it on a more west to northwest track. At this time, Fred is of no threat to Houston or the Gulf.
We've also got another watch area over on the east coast, near the outer banks. It's basically just a weak area of low pressure that continues to produce a good deal of wind and rain. Still, it's something to keep an eye on, though not much development is expected, if any, as that shear remains just a bit too strong for any real organization.
What about the Gulf? All we've had so far is Claudette and unless you lived east of New Orleans, you didn't get a drop of rain from it. Models have been pretty shaky of late, but a few are hinting at the development of an area of low pressure in the western Gulf, anywhere from coastal Louisiana to southern Texas. Could we get another short lived storm in the Gulf? Will the low even form? Are we even going to get any substantial rainfall? We could go either way on all of those. In any case, it'll be a good idea to watch the area.
Museum District Day 2009 is fast approaching (Saturday!!) and we are in need of some volunteers. We can easily expect about 2000 people to move through the museum (ours alone) and we just don't have the staff to watch everyone. We're fortunate enough to have a few extras coming, but we need more, probably about 5 to 10 more people. If you've got nothing to do Saturday, come on down to the weather museum and help us out. Food and drinks will be available. Contact Benjamin Maloney at 713-529-3076 or wrc@wxresearch.org for more info. Hope to see you here!
We've also got another watch area over on the east coast, near the outer banks. It's basically just a weak area of low pressure that continues to produce a good deal of wind and rain. Still, it's something to keep an eye on, though not much development is expected, if any, as that shear remains just a bit too strong for any real organization.
What about the Gulf? All we've had so far is Claudette and unless you lived east of New Orleans, you didn't get a drop of rain from it. Models have been pretty shaky of late, but a few are hinting at the development of an area of low pressure in the western Gulf, anywhere from coastal Louisiana to southern Texas. Could we get another short lived storm in the Gulf? Will the low even form? Are we even going to get any substantial rainfall? We could go either way on all of those. In any case, it'll be a good idea to watch the area.
Museum District Day 2009 is fast approaching (Saturday!!) and we are in need of some volunteers. We can easily expect about 2000 people to move through the museum (ours alone) and we just don't have the staff to watch everyone. We're fortunate enough to have a few extras coming, but we need more, probably about 5 to 10 more people. If you've got nothing to do Saturday, come on down to the weather museum and help us out. Food and drinks will be available. Contact Benjamin Maloney at 713-529-3076 or wrc@wxresearch.org for more info. Hope to see you here!
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Tropical Depression Two!!
Early this morning Tropical Depression Two formed way out in the eastern Atlantic. At this time, the depression is rather small with limited thunderstorm activity near the center. Whatever strengthening that may occur is hard to judge at this point as it has a few things working against it. In the area it's in, the ocean water isn't the warmest and, along its projected path, it doesn't get any warmer...in fact, it's a little bit cooler. Also, there is a good deal of dry air surrounding it. You need three ingredients to get these things really going; light shear, warm ocean waters, and a humid atmosphere. Right now, it's missing two of the ingredients. What it does have is a light shear environment. Should this depression move along a more westerly or drift south a little bit, shear will remain light and some gradual strengthening could occur. However, the forecast track is taking it a little more north. This puts it in an area of moderate to strong shear and any intensification that did occur will be quickly wiped out.
That said, getting an accurate track on this thing will be hard until it develops further. At this time the NHC is calling for a general westward motion (keeping it in light shear and allowing some development) until a weakness develops in the Atlantic high. When this occurs, TD 2 is expected to make it's northward shift in direction and enter the stronger upper level winds.
This depression shouldn't pose any threat to the Gulf of Mexico or even the east coast of the US.
We could have another tropical system forming within the next day or so. GFS has been keying on a wave to emerge from Africa within the next 12 to 24 hours. Once it does, the model has been developing an area of low pressure along the wave and then rapidly intensifying as it stays further south in the lighter shear. The forecast track for it actually puts it near the Gulf (sometime next week) before making a sudden turn to the north and northeast. This is just speculation at this point because this wave hasn't emerged yet, though GFS has been pretty consistent with it's initiation at least. So, don't worry about it until it actually forms. At that time, I'm guessing that models solutions will change dramatically.
There are also a couple other watch areas in the central Atlantic and near the eastern Caribbean, though no development is expected of either as they remain in an area of strong shear.
Tropical season has finally arrived!
That said, getting an accurate track on this thing will be hard until it develops further. At this time the NHC is calling for a general westward motion (keeping it in light shear and allowing some development) until a weakness develops in the Atlantic high. When this occurs, TD 2 is expected to make it's northward shift in direction and enter the stronger upper level winds.
This depression shouldn't pose any threat to the Gulf of Mexico or even the east coast of the US.
We could have another tropical system forming within the next day or so. GFS has been keying on a wave to emerge from Africa within the next 12 to 24 hours. Once it does, the model has been developing an area of low pressure along the wave and then rapidly intensifying as it stays further south in the lighter shear. The forecast track for it actually puts it near the Gulf (sometime next week) before making a sudden turn to the north and northeast. This is just speculation at this point because this wave hasn't emerged yet, though GFS has been pretty consistent with it's initiation at least. So, don't worry about it until it actually forms. At that time, I'm guessing that models solutions will change dramatically.
There are also a couple other watch areas in the central Atlantic and near the eastern Caribbean, though no development is expected of either as they remain in an area of strong shear.
Tropical season has finally arrived!
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Updates! Whats going on in the tropics!
Not all that much going on at the museum right now, with the exception of the planning out of two seminars, one in November 2009 while the other will be in march of next year. At this time, the November seminar will be geared more toward the lawyer aspect of the field and may not be open to the general public. It will be covering a good deal of forensic Meteorology, which is not nearly as dramatic as anything seen on CSI or NCIM. I don't think much is actually. If this does end up open to the public, there should be some good stuff to learn.
The second seminar is looking to be much bigger than any seminar we have done so far. With previous seminars we have focused primarily on southeast Texas, even with the climate change topic. Now, we're looking to go national and we'll be covering flooding, a severely under appreciated aspect of the weather (also something anyone in Louisville may want to pay attention to.) As of now, this is looking like a two day conference with a registration fee. Details are presently sketchy, but the committee is meeting as I type, so we'll have more information very soon. Should be open to the general public, as flooding eventually affects all of us in some way.
Did you know that flooding causes more weather related deaths than any other event? Tornadoes and lightening may look more spectacular, but they don't hold a candle to what flooding can do. And did you know that most every year Texas leads the nation in flooding deaths? Stop driving through standing water people! For more information of flooding check out http://www.floodsafety.com/texas/regional_info/regional_info/houston_zone.htm.
As for the tropics, there isn't much going on. Yesterday we did have a watch area in the eastern/central Atlantic, today it's gone as shower activity has greatly diminished in that area. There is a weak low floating around the eastern Atlantic, near 12N 33W. At this time, no development is expected, though it will be a good idea to keep an eye on it as it meanders west-northwest. Lets hope the season stays quiet, though we have the most active part coming up. August 15th to September 15th is traditionally when most development occurs. Keep them fingers crossed. On a more comforting note, Professor Gray revised his scale and brought the foretasted tropical activity down a small notch. Which actually brings it closer to our prediction. Nice job us!
Moving onto Houston. Not much to say as high pressure persists over the eastern and central Gulf keeping a hot and humid air mass over us for the foreseeable duration. We are under a heat advisory today and probably tomorrow also as we can easily foresee a few 100+ degree temps popping up in Harris County and the surrounding area. Stay inside as much as possible and drink lots of water.
Thanks all!
The second seminar is looking to be much bigger than any seminar we have done so far. With previous seminars we have focused primarily on southeast Texas, even with the climate change topic. Now, we're looking to go national and we'll be covering flooding, a severely under appreciated aspect of the weather (also something anyone in Louisville may want to pay attention to.) As of now, this is looking like a two day conference with a registration fee. Details are presently sketchy, but the committee is meeting as I type, so we'll have more information very soon. Should be open to the general public, as flooding eventually affects all of us in some way.
Did you know that flooding causes more weather related deaths than any other event? Tornadoes and lightening may look more spectacular, but they don't hold a candle to what flooding can do. And did you know that most every year Texas leads the nation in flooding deaths? Stop driving through standing water people! For more information of flooding check out http://www.floodsafety.com/texas/regional_info/regional_info/houston_zone.htm.
As for the tropics, there isn't much going on. Yesterday we did have a watch area in the eastern/central Atlantic, today it's gone as shower activity has greatly diminished in that area. There is a weak low floating around the eastern Atlantic, near 12N 33W. At this time, no development is expected, though it will be a good idea to keep an eye on it as it meanders west-northwest. Lets hope the season stays quiet, though we have the most active part coming up. August 15th to September 15th is traditionally when most development occurs. Keep them fingers crossed. On a more comforting note, Professor Gray revised his scale and brought the foretasted tropical activity down a small notch. Which actually brings it closer to our prediction. Nice job us!
Moving onto Houston. Not much to say as high pressure persists over the eastern and central Gulf keeping a hot and humid air mass over us for the foreseeable duration. We are under a heat advisory today and probably tomorrow also as we can easily foresee a few 100+ degree temps popping up in Harris County and the surrounding area. Stay inside as much as possible and drink lots of water.
Thanks all!
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
New seminar!
We're in the planning stages for a new seminar. Topic matter will be a wrap up of the 2009 hurricane season (if there's going to be one....I probably just jinxed it) and flooding (everywhere, not just houston flooding). So for the readers of the blog, what kind of topics within these two....topics would you like to hear about? Send over some ideas via comments oth through the email at wrc@wxresearch.org.
In other news, it actually rained over a majority of Houston this morning. I haven't heard/felt that in a while. And while we're all very thankful for the rain, we could still use a good deal more. At the moment, we're about 4 to 6 inches under normal. If we were further west, it'd be even worse. Lake Travis is about 28 feet below normal. This is absolutely horrible. We need rain here in Texas, just not near Dallas. They've had enough.
In other news, it actually rained over a majority of Houston this morning. I haven't heard/felt that in a while. And while we're all very thankful for the rain, we could still use a good deal more. At the moment, we're about 4 to 6 inches under normal. If we were further west, it'd be even worse. Lake Travis is about 28 feet below normal. This is absolutely horrible. We need rain here in Texas, just not near Dallas. They've had enough.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Brief look at the tropics
First off, the tropics. Nothing much going on at all. Global models do not indicate there will be anything all that interesting for the next five or so days. Yay. So far this is shaping up to be a quiet year. Lets keep it that way. Or just keep all storms away from Houston.
We did have a bit of a scare over the weekend as the nhc issued a moderate risk of development for a tropical wave that was moving over the northwest Caribbean. Short range models even showed a low developing over the southeast Gulf then moving into Florida as anything from a depression to a cat 2 hurricane. Moving into the Yucatan Peninsula and dry air had something to say about that though. So, nothing came of it except widespread showers over the western Caribbean.
Tomorrow, Weather Pioneer Days and a look at India. Could have more pictures!!
We did have a bit of a scare over the weekend as the nhc issued a moderate risk of development for a tropical wave that was moving over the northwest Caribbean. Short range models even showed a low developing over the southeast Gulf then moving into Florida as anything from a depression to a cat 2 hurricane. Moving into the Yucatan Peninsula and dry air had something to say about that though. So, nothing came of it except widespread showers over the western Caribbean.
Tomorrow, Weather Pioneer Days and a look at India. Could have more pictures!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
