Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Tropical Storm Fred/MDD/Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression 7 rapidly strengthened into Fred late last night and conditions remain favorable over the next 36 hours for it to become only our second hurricane of the year. After wards, though, it's not looking to good for our little system. A upper level trough (now north of Fred) will start to bring some strong shear to the storm. This, combined with a northerly track that puts it in some much cooler waters, will begin to weaken Fred, bringing back to Tropical Storm status by Friday. For the most part, models keep the system on a north to northwest track over the next few days, but by the end of the week, high pressure could develop north of the storm and either halt movement or dramatically slow it down, while steering it on a more west to northwest track. At this time, Fred is of no threat to Houston or the Gulf.

We've also got another watch area over on the east coast, near the outer banks. It's basically just a weak area of low pressure that continues to produce a good deal of wind and rain. Still, it's something to keep an eye on, though not much development is expected, if any, as that shear remains just a bit too strong for any real organization.

What about the Gulf? All we've had so far is Claudette and unless you lived east of New Orleans, you didn't get a drop of rain from it. Models have been pretty shaky of late, but a few are hinting at the development of an area of low pressure in the western Gulf, anywhere from coastal Louisiana to southern Texas. Could we get another short lived storm in the Gulf? Will the low even form? Are we even going to get any substantial rainfall? We could go either way on all of those. In any case, it'll be a good idea to watch the area.

Museum District Day 2009 is fast approaching (Saturday!!) and we are in need of some volunteers. We can easily expect about 2000 people to move through the museum (ours alone) and we just don't have the staff to watch everyone. We're fortunate enough to have a few extras coming, but we need more, probably about 5 to 10 more people. If you've got nothing to do Saturday, come on down to the weather museum and help us out. Food and drinks will be available. Contact Benjamin Maloney at 713-529-3076 or wrc@wxresearch.org for more info. Hope to see you here!

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