Early this morning Tropical Depression Two formed way out in the eastern Atlantic. At this time, the depression is rather small with limited thunderstorm activity near the center. Whatever strengthening that may occur is hard to judge at this point as it has a few things working against it. In the area it's in, the ocean water isn't the warmest and, along its projected path, it doesn't get any warmer...in fact, it's a little bit cooler. Also, there is a good deal of dry air surrounding it. You need three ingredients to get these things really going; light shear, warm ocean waters, and a humid atmosphere. Right now, it's missing two of the ingredients. What it does have is a light shear environment. Should this depression move along a more westerly or drift south a little bit, shear will remain light and some gradual strengthening could occur. However, the forecast track is taking it a little more north. This puts it in an area of moderate to strong shear and any intensification that did occur will be quickly wiped out.
That said, getting an accurate track on this thing will be hard until it develops further. At this time the NHC is calling for a general westward motion (keeping it in light shear and allowing some development) until a weakness develops in the Atlantic high. When this occurs, TD 2 is expected to make it's northward shift in direction and enter the stronger upper level winds.
This depression shouldn't pose any threat to the Gulf of Mexico or even the east coast of the US.
We could have another tropical system forming within the next day or so. GFS has been keying on a wave to emerge from Africa within the next 12 to 24 hours. Once it does, the model has been developing an area of low pressure along the wave and then rapidly intensifying as it stays further south in the lighter shear. The forecast track for it actually puts it near the Gulf (sometime next week) before making a sudden turn to the north and northeast. This is just speculation at this point because this wave hasn't emerged yet, though GFS has been pretty consistent with it's initiation at least. So, don't worry about it until it actually forms. At that time, I'm guessing that models solutions will change dramatically.
There are also a couple other watch areas in the central Atlantic and near the eastern Caribbean, though no development is expected of either as they remain in an area of strong shear.
Tropical season has finally arrived!
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Updates! Whats going on in the tropics!
Not all that much going on at the museum right now, with the exception of the planning out of two seminars, one in November 2009 while the other will be in march of next year. At this time, the November seminar will be geared more toward the lawyer aspect of the field and may not be open to the general public. It will be covering a good deal of forensic Meteorology, which is not nearly as dramatic as anything seen on CSI or NCIM. I don't think much is actually. If this does end up open to the public, there should be some good stuff to learn.
The second seminar is looking to be much bigger than any seminar we have done so far. With previous seminars we have focused primarily on southeast Texas, even with the climate change topic. Now, we're looking to go national and we'll be covering flooding, a severely under appreciated aspect of the weather (also something anyone in Louisville may want to pay attention to.) As of now, this is looking like a two day conference with a registration fee. Details are presently sketchy, but the committee is meeting as I type, so we'll have more information very soon. Should be open to the general public, as flooding eventually affects all of us in some way.
Did you know that flooding causes more weather related deaths than any other event? Tornadoes and lightening may look more spectacular, but they don't hold a candle to what flooding can do. And did you know that most every year Texas leads the nation in flooding deaths? Stop driving through standing water people! For more information of flooding check out http://www.floodsafety.com/texas/regional_info/regional_info/houston_zone.htm.
As for the tropics, there isn't much going on. Yesterday we did have a watch area in the eastern/central Atlantic, today it's gone as shower activity has greatly diminished in that area. There is a weak low floating around the eastern Atlantic, near 12N 33W. At this time, no development is expected, though it will be a good idea to keep an eye on it as it meanders west-northwest. Lets hope the season stays quiet, though we have the most active part coming up. August 15th to September 15th is traditionally when most development occurs. Keep them fingers crossed. On a more comforting note, Professor Gray revised his scale and brought the foretasted tropical activity down a small notch. Which actually brings it closer to our prediction. Nice job us!
Moving onto Houston. Not much to say as high pressure persists over the eastern and central Gulf keeping a hot and humid air mass over us for the foreseeable duration. We are under a heat advisory today and probably tomorrow also as we can easily foresee a few 100+ degree temps popping up in Harris County and the surrounding area. Stay inside as much as possible and drink lots of water.
Thanks all!
The second seminar is looking to be much bigger than any seminar we have done so far. With previous seminars we have focused primarily on southeast Texas, even with the climate change topic. Now, we're looking to go national and we'll be covering flooding, a severely under appreciated aspect of the weather (also something anyone in Louisville may want to pay attention to.) As of now, this is looking like a two day conference with a registration fee. Details are presently sketchy, but the committee is meeting as I type, so we'll have more information very soon. Should be open to the general public, as flooding eventually affects all of us in some way.
Did you know that flooding causes more weather related deaths than any other event? Tornadoes and lightening may look more spectacular, but they don't hold a candle to what flooding can do. And did you know that most every year Texas leads the nation in flooding deaths? Stop driving through standing water people! For more information of flooding check out http://www.floodsafety.com/texas/regional_info/regional_info/houston_zone.htm.
As for the tropics, there isn't much going on. Yesterday we did have a watch area in the eastern/central Atlantic, today it's gone as shower activity has greatly diminished in that area. There is a weak low floating around the eastern Atlantic, near 12N 33W. At this time, no development is expected, though it will be a good idea to keep an eye on it as it meanders west-northwest. Lets hope the season stays quiet, though we have the most active part coming up. August 15th to September 15th is traditionally when most development occurs. Keep them fingers crossed. On a more comforting note, Professor Gray revised his scale and brought the foretasted tropical activity down a small notch. Which actually brings it closer to our prediction. Nice job us!
Moving onto Houston. Not much to say as high pressure persists over the eastern and central Gulf keeping a hot and humid air mass over us for the foreseeable duration. We are under a heat advisory today and probably tomorrow also as we can easily foresee a few 100+ degree temps popping up in Harris County and the surrounding area. Stay inside as much as possible and drink lots of water.
Thanks all!
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