Tropical Depression Two!!

Early this morning Tropical Depression Two formed way out in the eastern Atlantic. At this time, the depression is rather small with limited thunderstorm activity near the center. Whatever strengthening that may occur is hard to judge at this point as it has a few things working against it. In the area it's in, the ocean water isn't the warmest and, along its projected path, it doesn't get any warmer...in fact, it's a little bit cooler. Also, there is a good deal of dry air surrounding it. You need three ingredients to get these things really going; light shear, warm ocean waters, and a humid atmosphere. Right now, it's missing two of the ingredients. What it does have is a light shear environment. Should this depression move along a more westerly or drift south a little bit, shear will remain light and some gradual strengthening could occur. However, the forecast track is taking it a little more north. This puts it in an area of moderate to strong shear and any intensification that did occur will be quickly wiped out.

That said, getting an accurate track on this thing will be hard until it develops further. At this time the NHC is calling for a general westward motion (keeping it in light shear and allowing some development) until a weakness develops in the Atlantic high. When this occurs, TD 2 is expected to make it's northward shift in direction and enter the stronger upper level winds.

This depression shouldn't pose any threat to the Gulf of Mexico or even the east coast of the US.

We could have another tropical system forming within the next day or so. GFS has been keying on a wave to emerge from Africa within the next 12 to 24 hours. Once it does, the model has been developing an area of low pressure along the wave and then rapidly intensifying as it stays further south in the lighter shear. The forecast track for it actually puts it near the Gulf (sometime next week) before making a sudden turn to the north and northeast. This is just speculation at this point because this wave hasn't emerged yet, though GFS has been pretty consistent with it's initiation at least. So, don't worry about it until it actually forms. At that time, I'm guessing that models solutions will change dramatically.

There are also a couple other watch areas in the central Atlantic and near the eastern Caribbean, though no development is expected of either as they remain in an area of strong shear.

Tropical season has finally arrived!